To break the monotony of farm chores and moving cattle, cowboys would often devise competitions to see who's horse was the fastest, most responsive, quickest turning, etc. Most “American” horse sports have evolved from these games, including reining, cutting, roping, penning, and the two most popular gymkhana events, barrel racing and pole bending. Barrel racing is a speed competition that involves racing around three 45-gallon drums in a cloverleaf pattern. If a competitor knocks over a barrel, a five second penalty is added to the time. This race tests not only the horse's speed, but also its ability to start and stop quickly and turn fast but carefully.

Barrel racing has become very popular in the Maritimes. The Maritime Barrel Racing Association (MBRA) governs barrel racing throughout Nova Scotia , New Brunswick , Prince Edward Island , and Quebec , as well as enticing some members from Maine . During the year, the MBRA holds several “jackpot” competitions as well as sanctioning six exhibitions across Nova Scotia : the South Shore Exhibition ( Bridgewater ), the Cape Breton Exhibition ( North Sydney ), the Nova Scotia Provincial Exhibition ( Truro ), the Eastern Nova Scotia Exhibition (Antigonish), the Hants County Exhibition ( Windsor ), and the Maritime Fall Fair (formerly the Atlantic Winter Fair; Halifax ). The Open Barrel Race runs at each of these exhibitions are sponsored by the Atlantic Dodge Dealers, with an added purse of $3000 for the show – with three runs, that's still $1000 per run. In addition to the added money, a portion of each rider's entry fees also goes into the purse for the class. A single first place run can win a rider as much as $600!

Within the MBRA, there are several recurrent observations that I wanted to test. First, it is generally accepted that not all of the arenas produce the same range of times. In other words, some arenas allow for faster times than others. This is likely due to a combination of arena size (and thus distance travelled) and the quality of the footing. It has also been observed and generally accepted that horses run faster as the show progresses. This can be analysed in two ways: by looking at the change in the winning times (first through third) over the course of the competition, and by looking at different horses' times over the course of the competition. Using data from the 2004 season, I reviewed the Dodge Open Barrel times from the six exhibitions and applied tests of the following test hypotheses:

•  The six arenas vary in “speed”

•  The winning times (first through third) get faster as the show progresses

•  The average horse runs faster as the show progresses

 

Hypothesis #1: The arenas vary in “speed”

Using the top 40% of times (calculated using the total entries in each run) I performed an analysis of variance between the times of each arena. The restriction to the top 40% is to eliminate the incongruent data from shows with lower numbers of entries. For example, the Cape Breton Exhibition had only 14 entries per run, while the Maritime Fall Fair had 20 entries. This allows for slower horses to get higher placings at the smaller shows, which would bias the results by including times that would otherwise be outliers at larger shows.

Results:

The ANOVA results shown in Table 1 demonstrate sufficient evidence to show that the arenas do vary in the speed of runs they produce (P=0.000). Using a Fisher comparison for further analysis, ranks for the arenas by speed were obtained using an individual confidence level of 95% as shown in Table 2. This analysis demonstrated that the Antigonish Exhibition Grounds (Eastern Nova Scotia Exhibition) produced the fastest times. This was followed by the North Sydney Exhibition Grounds (Cape Breton Exhibition), Bridgewater (South Shore Exhibition), and Halifax (Maritime Fall Fair), all of which were statistically the same at this confidence level. Finally, the Windsor arena (Hants County Exhibition) and the Truro arena (Nova Scotia Provincial Exhibition) were jointly the slowest show grounds on the circuit.

Hypothesis #2: The winning times get faster as the show progresses

Using the top three times from each show for each day, I performed a Friedman Test of the run times using the days of the competition as the three treatments and the show plus the placing as the blocks (i.e. Second place at the Hants County Exhibition, etc.).

Results:

The results of the Friedman Test (summarized in Table 3) show that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the winning times in Open Barrel classes do get faster as the competition progresses. A regression analysis of the relationship between winning times and day of competition yielding the following equation:

Figure 1. Scatter plot and regression line of the relationship between run time and day of competition for the top three placings (r 2 = 6.2%).

Hypothesis #3: The average horse runs faster as the show progresses

Using all and only horses who placed in all three runs at any one show, I performed a Friedman Test of the run times using the day of competition as the three treatments and the horse plus the show as the blocks (i.e. Dash For Timber at the South Shore Exhibition).

Results:

The results of the Friedman Test (summarized in Table 4) show that there is sufficient evidence to conclude that the average open barrel horse does run faster as the competition progresses. Regression analyses of the relationship between run time and day of competition yielding the following equation:

Figure 2. Scatter plot and regression line of the relationship between run time and day of competition for the average horse (r 2 = 1.8%).

Overall, statistical analysis has shown that some commonly held beliefs within the MBRA are in agreement with the actual data. First, the data has shown that the six Maritime arenas vary in the range of speeds they produce. While the Fisher comparisons showed much overlap in arena speed, it would perhaps have shown a more distinct variation using a less restrictive confidence level, especially given the closeness of the times. From this comparison, we can also make tentative inferences on the importance of footing quality for producing fast times. It can be argued that our local arena, the North Sydney Exhibition Grounds, has the best footing of the six. This would seem to be supported by the data, as it is the largest arena but still has the second fastest average time behind only Antigonish, the smallest arena on the circuit.

Next, I showed that the top three winning times in a competition do get faster as the show progresses, roughly following the equation [Time = 15.511 – 0.080 Day]. The low r-value of the regression equation can be explained by the variation among both the placing times and the arenas. However, this discrepancy can be largely disregarded as the Friedman Test already showed that there was significant variation among the days of competition. We can thus determine that the winning times will likely be 0.080 seconds faster on the second day than the first day, and 0.160 seconds faster on the third day than they were on the first day.

Finally, I have shown that the average horse does run faster over the course of the competition, regardless of how fast they are compared to the competition or which arena they are running in. The decrease in run times can be roughly predicted by the equation [Time = 15.919 – 0.076 Day]. Once again, the r-value is low, but the comparison should hold given the Friedman Test results showing a low p-value at 0.073. The variation causing the low r-value can be explained by the differential speeds of the different horses and the variance due to the arena speed. Thus, we can determine that the average horse should generally run 0.076 seconds faster on the second day of competition than on the first, and 0.152 seconds faster on the third day than on the first day.

Obviously, the faster winning times are due to the fact that the horses are generally running faster. The increase in speed (decrease in time) over the three days of competition can have several different explanations. Most likely, or most importantly, the horses and riders are most likely becoming more comfortable with the nuances of the arena and the footing. This would allow the rider to anticipate the strengths and weaknesses in the footing and make adjustments to their course to allow for a faster time. Also, the horse will know how fast he can turn without slipping and will generally become more confident. Crowd contribution could also play a part: horses tend to get more excited and run faster when the crowds are cheering loudly and more people tend to attend exhibitions later in the week. Horses could also be resting progressively better. For example, a horse that is hauled in just prior to the first run may be stressed from the trip. Then he is put into an unfamiliar stall surrounded with unfamiliar horses, and while he may be more rested for the second run, he might still be sub par. By the second night, the horse may be more comfortable with his surrounding and get a better rest, allowing him to perform better by the third night. Only more in depth observations would allow us to identify what the most important factors are, whether they are the ones proposed here or some other unidentified contribution.